A successful political campaign is driven by fundraising, ad messaging, rallying, and in the 21st century, the use of Internet activism. But none of these tactics are effective without polling, which helps shape the techniques that drive a campaign forward.
Join FORA.tv on November 2, as the Monitor Breakfast hosts Neil Newhouse and Margie Omero, two highly regarded Washington pollsters with insider knowledge on the current campaign strengths and weaknesses of both parties.
The Republican presidential field is crowded and volatile. Earlier this summer, Michele Bachmann was considered the darling candidate among voters in Iowa, yet has all but fallen off the radar in recent weeks. Herman Cain’s “9-9-9” tax plan give him a boost, yet threw him in the spotlight, however recent issues such as sexual harassment allegations and added pressure by both the media and Democratic opposition have led him to stumble slightly.
Mitt Romney at the Conservative Political Action Conference
According to Neil Newhouse, the lead pollster for Mitt Romney, this year’s election is all about staying power. While his candidate hasn’t made any major waves like Bachmann or Cain (yet), he also hasn’t committed any major gaffes, either. Newhouse believes that Romney’s poise in the recent GOP debates demonstrates his electability, and that by avoiding harsh criticism from fellow candidates, he will be well positioned to make a run in the primaries.
Margie Omero, a Democratic pollster who provides data for Obama’s reelection campaign, analyzes a set of polling information that is far different from her counterpart on the GOP side. Obama’s campaign isn’t about gaining new voters as much as it is about keeping his base energized, and more importantly, maintaining confidence among swing voters, she believes.
One particular group of swing voters that Omero focused on recently are the so-called “Walmart Moms,” a coveted demographic of working-class females. Polling data by Omero in battleground states such as New Hampshire, Florida and Iowa suggest that these moms are troubled by the stagnant economy and weak leadership in Washington, but as of yet, are still supporting Obama.
Watch Neil Newhouse and Margie Omero at the Monitor Breakfast on demand at FORA.tv.